There is no universal standard methodology for assessing the validity of hydrographic survey data and charted information as they age. NOAA’s current method is the Hydrographic Health Model (HHM), a risk-based approach that incorporates crucial maritime variables and heuristic changeability terms through the history and frequency of large storms, tidal currents, and anthropogenic obstructions of a given area. Here we propose a quantitative approach evaluated in Chesapeake Bay and the Delmarva Peninsula that supports uncertainty-based estimates of chart health through alternative methodologies of calculating the initial state of historic hydrographic data and modeling how those change through time.